Toward a Complexity Analysis of the Crisis: A Keynesian Perspective on the Ecuadorian Crisis from the Stock Market

Abstract

Based on the Keynesian principle that links the variable "confidence" to the stock market, and social change to the clocks of social prediction, this article contributes to the diagnostic and predictive systems understanding of the crisis by analyzing the relationship between the situation and the breakdown of illusory generality from the perspective of GDP econometrics and the stock market performance of Ecuador between 2010 and 2024. The need to build diagnostic systems from complex angles is observed. It is concluded that the stock market is relevant as an indicator of confidence in the Ecuadorian case, provided that general market activity is substantially associated with public participation, and that these are essential for explaining GDP. However, although the stock market can be used as a measure of the confidence of the most important economic agents to interpret the economic and political situation, it must be included in a polyphony of intersubjective variables, just as the cultural and political analysis is conducted.